The principle of the indicator.
The Strong Trend Flat Signal
(STFS) indicator is the intersection of two, developed by the author,
non-lagging moving averages with averaging periods 21 and 63.
A simple moving average (SMA) with an averaging
period (2n + 1) of bars is always obtained lagging by n bars. If SMA or
other types of moving averages are the basis for making trading decisions, then
their strong delay does not allow to
open positions in time and close positions, which leads to losses.
Non-lagging moving averages calculated at the points (Inf, n + 1) in the usual way, and at the
points of the [n, 0] segment, where 0 is the last bar number, is
algorithmically and there is a curvilinear sector (cover out the confidence
interval) in which the line of the non-lagging moving average fits with the
confidence level specified in the indicator settings. It is
clear that the more the confidence probability value is taken (which by default
is equal to 0.67), the wider the curvilinear sector of the confidence interval
is obtained. If we take the confidence probability equal to zero, then the
sector of the indicator readings at points [n, 0] will shrink to a curve, which
will pass through the most probable values of the non-lagging average.
Statistical studies show that the price around the non-remaining average is
distributed according to the Laplace law. Knowledge of the distribution law and
the algorithm for calculating the most likely non-lagging average on the [n, 0]
segment allow us to calculate the confidence interval sector.
Trade
using the Strong Trend Flat Signal
indicator.
If the lower border slow
component of the figure sector of the STFS indicator moves to the up, then there is an
uptrend and you need to open positions on Buy. If the upper
boundary of the slow component of the curvilinear sector of the STFS indicator is oriented downwards, then there
is a downward trend and you need to open positions on Sell. In
such cases, you can be sure of the correctness of the established trend
direction with the confidence level set in the indicator settings.
If the upper limit of the slow component of the figure sector
of the STFS indicator moves to the up, and the its lower limit moves down, then there is a
flat, which serves as a signal for closing trend positions.
If the slow component of the
indicator determines the flat or channel, but the sector of the fast component
is noticeably beyond the sector of the slow component, then this means the
breakdown of the channel and serves as a signal to open the corresponding
position.
If the slow component of the
indicator determines the trend, but the sector of the fast component noticeably
leaves the sector of the slow component from the opposite direction of the
trend, this means the end of the trend and serves as the signal to close the
corresponding position.
Indicator settings.
- Price type – applied price.
Values: Close price, Open price, High price, Low price, Median price ((high + low)/2 – default), Typical price ((high +
low + close)/3),
Weighted price ((high + low + 2*close)/4). - The averaging method – Values: Simple (default),
Exponential, Smoothed, Linear weighted. - The
first averaging period – Any
integer (21 by default). - The
second averaging period – Any
integer (63 by default). - Confidence probability – Values: from 0 to 0.999 (0.67 by
default). - Global
shift – Global shift
of the beginning of the indicator readings in bars. Values: any
positive integer (0 default). - Color
of the first line. – The color of
the indicator first line
and its figure sector. - Color
of the second line. – The color of the indicator second line and its figure sector. - Paint
over the confidence interval? – Values: true (by default), false.